Friday, July 10, 2015

Vincent Varisano Now Even Kudrin Says It - Russia's Economy will Resume Growth in Final Quarter

Vincent Varisano,

Aleksey Kudrin, Russia’s former Finance Minister and one of the most pessimistic voices in Russia on the state of the economy, has now said that he too expects signs of recovery to become apparent in the last quarter of 2015.

This brings Kudrin into line with the forecasts of the Finance and Economics Ministries and of the Central Bank.

Meanwhile inflation is continuing to fall.  It is now estimated to be running at an annualised rate of 15.2%, with the Economics Ministry predicting deflation (ie. falling prices) in August.

Meanwhile the Finance Ministry is predicting a total budget deficit for 2015 of just 3% of GDP, the Central Bank’s reserves grew by $4.8 billion in June and the ruble seems to have shrugged off the brief plunge in oil prices that took place because of the Greek crisis.

Against this Andrey Kostin, Chairman of VTB, Russia’s second biggest bank, has said that he expects the next cut in interest rates to be no more than 50 basis points.  This comes despite the ruble’s stabilisation, the fall in inflation and a significant fall in investment and manufacturing output in the period March to June caused in large part by the high interest rates.

Concerning interest rates, in conditions of falling prices such as are now forecast for August, the real burden of interest rates is actually growing despite the nominal decline since the start of the year.  This tends to reinforce the impression that the Russian authorities and the Central Bank have made a conscious decision to trade a short but relatively shallow recession for a long term reduction in inflation.

As to the severity of the recession, it has resulted in a significant cut in real incomes - the first since Putin came to power - but no steep rise in the rate of unemployment, which remains low.

Given the growing consensus of a return to growth in the fourth quarter, it would now be something of a surprise if that didn’t happen.  There are in fact no obvious reasons why it should not.

Overall the Russian economy has responded well to last year’s collapse in oil prices.  The adjustment has been surprisingly fast and far less painful than was anticipated.

Further confirmation that Obama’s claims that Russia doesn’t make anything and that Putin is wrecking Russia’s economy by trying to restore the USSR are nonsense.



via Vincent Varisano, Now Even Kudrin Says It - Russia's Economy will Resume Growth in Final Quarter

Thursday, July 9, 2015

Vincent Varisano Russia to Supply 100 Sukhoi Passenger Jets to China

Vincent Varisano,

This article originally appeared at Russia Beyond the Headlines


Russia will supply 100 Sukhoi Superjets to China in the next three years, Russian Trade and Industry Minister Denis Manturov said at the Innprom-2015 Defense Exhibition in Yekaterinburg.

The first five airplanes will be delivered in 2016.

According to Manturov, Russia and China will also jointly manufacture a large passenger airplane and a heavy helicopter.

“Industrial cooperation within the framework of APEC, ASEAN and BRICS is particularly important in times of political instability,” Manturov said. “We have agreed to hold a meeting in October in Moscow between the main ministries of the BRICS nations.”

Bilateral trade between Russia and China touched $90 billion last year, Manturov said, adding that Russia would like this figure to touch $200 billion by 2020. “The share of the oil and gas sector in Russia’s exports is obviously very high, but the non-raw material industries accounted for $50 billion (in trade with China) and we must try to increase it in the future,” he said.



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Vincent Varisano Do Russia Sanctions Still Exist?

Vincent Varisano,

This article originally appeared at OilPrice.com


In a previous article on Oilprice, I questioned whether western sanctions imposed on Russia were being regularly breached by E.U. and Asian companies, noting that sanctions only work if all countries unite behind them.

In June, the Financial Times reported that only one year after being imposed, the sanctions are eroding. It seems that government and business policies are pulling in opposite directions, despite the sanction regime being clear on the activities that are banned, as explained by Forbes:

“Last July (‘14), the E.U. banned its companies from signing any new financing deals with Russia. In September, the E.U. placed even more restrictions on Russia’s access to E.U. capital markets. The sanctions state that individuals and corporations from the E.U. are banned from providing loans to five major Russian state-owned banks, including Sberbank and VTB Bank, and the three state owned energy companies, of which Gazprom tops the list.

The September sanctions, which went into effect on the 12th of that month, said that companies could no longer provide services related to the issuing of financial instruments, including broker relationships.

In addition, certain services necessary for deep water oil exploration and production, arctic oil exploration or production and shale oil projects in Russia were also banned.”

Much of the mainstream financial news also began picking up on the ‘sanction-busting’ story, pointing out that many NATO tied governments did not regard Russian sanctions as an obstacle to doing business with Russian energy companies.

Forbes notes that, as a result of sanctions, western oil companies that were once dominant in Russia are now being replaced by European and Asian companies. The article stated that ExxonMobil was “kicked out of Russia” because of sanctions, and was forced to cap a major Arctic discovery in the Kara Sea, where it had spent some 3/4 of a billion dollars, as part of a joint venture with Rosneft. 

ExxonMobil has 10 joint ventures in Russia with the state-owned firm Rosneft, but all of those have been shelved due to the sanctions.

European Union (EU) business and political leaders tend to question the validity of sanctions more than those in U.S., because sanctions have a much greater negative economic impact in the Europe. On the question of energy policy and Russia, clear differences are emerging within the EU, as well as between the EU and U.S.

One example of these differences arose over Iran sanctions, where the EU has recently voted to prolong its suspension of sanctions, until nuclear negotiations are completed.

“European companies are finding ways and are certainly freer to do business than their U.S. counterparts,” James Henderson, senior fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, told the Financial Times. “U.S. companies are going to be hugely disadvantaged as we go forward because E.U. sanctions are not retroactive and U.S. ones are.”

It remains an open question as to whether China and India’s multibillion dollar loans to Russia and their current joint energy ventures with Rosneft were a direct circumvention of western sanctions, with both Rosneft and its Chairman sanctioned. That also raises questions as to whether the sanctions themselves are creating unfair trade advantages for ‘busters.’

These potentially sanction busting deals were announced at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum:

• BP buys 20% of Rosneft-owned oil reserves in E.Siberia, in a $700 million deal, creating new Asian-bound oil partnership 
• Rosneft and Indian state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corp signed long-term deals. 
• Gazprom and Royal Dutch Shell are building a global alliance
• Gazprom signed an agreement with the Greek government to pursue its Turkish Stream Pipeline 
• Gazprom signed a 300 million euro loan with Unicredit Bank of Austria
• Gazprom held discussions with Engie (formerly GDF Suez) over gas pipelines to France

The capper came at the St Petersburg Economic Forum, where the Saudis arrived, offering to be a full-fledged finance partner in Russia’s energy development, in exchange for Russian nuclear expertise and military arms. Two weeks later, the Saudis raised the bet with a five-year, $10 billion investment in Russia’s agriculture, retail, and real estate sectors.

It is one thing to see Russia replace the West with China as client, partner, and financier of energy development; it’s quite another to see Russia swap western finance for Middle Eastern finance, sourced from one of the West’s strongest allies. That is likely to cause major concerns in western banking circles.

For the investment community, there was another sign at the Forum of the way the investment wind may be blowing. Jim Rogers, an American multi-billionaire investor and former partner of George Soros’s Quantum Fund, announced that he was investing in Russian assets precisely because “…they are the most hated in the world.”

The famous American contrarian has recently accepted a Board of Director’s Seat at PhosAgro, a Russian fertilizer company, where he is also a major stakeholder.

Some six months after sanctions were imposed, the U.S. Secretary of State visited the Kremlin for private talks with Putin, which were widely interpreted as an attempt to ease international tensions over Ukraine. After the St. Petersburg Forum, the first telephone conversation between Presidents Obama and Putin took place, breaking an eighteen month silence.

As tensions ease, and the news becomes more focused on issues like Greece, rather than Ukraine, sanctions vigilance seems to be eroding. There are also signs emerging that some U.S. analysts are beginning to question the western narrative on Russia’s actions in Ukraine. One example comes from a senior analyst at Stratfor.com, one of the most widely respected U.S. strategic intelligence newsletters. Senior Analyst Lauren Goodrich argued in a June 29 video on Stratfor’s website that the U.S. is actually the one making antagonizing moves while Russia is merely responding:

“The way that the American media has put it out there is that Russia is being the aggressor (in Ukraine), and instead we’re seeing Russia be very reactive instead. NATO starts to build up, then Russia starts to build up. The United States helps support the revolution that took place in Ukraine this past year, Russia then takes Crimea and goes into eastern Ukraine. So it really is a reaction to what is taking place out of the United States and out of NATO.”

All of this suggests that official government sanctions may continue a good deal longer, while the EU and Asian business community increasingly ignores them. That is likely to result in increased government pressure from the U.S. business community to enable its companies to compete on and equal plane with their EU and Asian peers. This growing dichotomy between the U.S. and EU/Asia is unlikely to be long lasting, as their respective governments seek ways to avoid embarrassment in their respective business communities.

As stated by Chris Weafer, founding partner at Macro-Advisory, a Moscow consultancy, “Goods and services which in theory are subject to sanctions, in reality do not appear to be. Companies seem to be working around it. There is obviously a very big blind eye being turned” by some western governments…. “I think the basic message is if you’re not blatant about it you’re fine.”

A U.S. State Dept. representative may have let the truth slip out when he described the reaction of the State Dept. to questions from U.S. companies about attending the St. Petersburg Economic Forum. “If you tell us you’re going, we’ll probably order you not to, but if you go and don’t tell us, we’ll probably do nothing,” he said.



via Vincent Varisano, Do Russia Sanctions Still Exist?

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Vincent Varisano Saudi-Russian Thaw Continues: Saudis to Invest $10 Billion in Russia Economy

Vincent Varisano,

MOSCOW, July 7 (TASS) - Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) plans investing up to $ 10 billion in infrastructure and agricultural projects in Russia in partnership with the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), Kirill Dmitriyev, RDIF director told TASS.

“That’s a token transaction, one of the largest transactions in the realm of sovereign funds,” Dmitriyev said. “These monies will be channelled to the farming sector, agriculture, healthcare, logistics, retail trade, and real estate.’

The agreement between the two funds came about as a result of a visit to Russia by the heir to the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Defence Minister of Saudi Arabia, who attended the St Petersburg International Economic Forum in June.

The agreement between Saudi PIF and RDIF signals a reloading of economic relations between Russia and Saudi Arabia, Dmitriyev told TASS.

“The potential of relations between the two countries is huge,” he said.

Saudi Arabia is a traditional partner and ally of the U.S. in the Middle East and the volume of its economic cooperation with Russia was small enough until recently. Also, the Saudi Kingdom is the world’s largest exporter of crude oil and it occupies the leading positions in OPEC.

The governments of countries exporting oil and other natural resources set up sovereign funds to keep up and invest their revenues. RDIP is already cooperating with a number of sovereign funds in the Middle East.

The Saudi government set up RIF in 1971 to invest in strategic projects.

The aforementioned amount of $ 10 billion will be invested over a period of four to five years, and the first seven deals have receive preliminary endorsement, and ten or so investments will be made before the end of this year, Kirill Dmitriyev said. He also admitted a possibility of investing the monies in third countries.

Dmitriyev said other funds were present in a number of endorsed transactions. New development institutes, like China’s Silk Road Fund might also join the projects in which PIF was going to invest.

“RDIP is integrated with leading investment foundations in the world,” he said. “We should do large-scale investment together.”

RDIP has signed an agreement on partnership with the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA) on bringing the Russian companies to the Saudi market.

“We believe there are unique opportunities in aircraft manufacturing and other sectors there,” Dmitriyev said. “We’ll be supporting our companies with investments as they tread the Saudi market.”.



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Vincent Varisano China's Space Programm May Be Carried by Russian Rockets

Vincent Varisano,

 

IRKUTSK, Russia, July 6 (TASS) - China may buy rocket engines for it space program from Russia, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin told TASS on Monday.

“We are talking about urgently preparing the most complex intergovernmental agreements that will outline the issue of maintaining Russia’s intellectual property on most high-technology production which will be sold in China. These are, first of all, rocket engines. China displays great interest in this issue,” Rogozin said.

The deputy prime minister noted that China is interested “in a number of services and products, which will be very important for the development of the Chinese space program, in particular, for its lunar program.” China’s lunar program is practically impossible withour “certain supplies of equipment from Russia,” Rogozin added.



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Friday, July 3, 2015

Vincent Varisano Oops! Western Sanctions Have Russian IT Firms Thriving

Vincent Varisano,

This article originally appeared at The Christian Science Monitor


MOSCOW — At a glance, starting a company amid Russia’s perfect economic storm of Western sanctions, bottoming oil prices, and a devalued ruble seems like a bad idea.

But that’s what Sergei Sherstobitov did, launching Angara, a small Internet security company, in February. And he thinks the prospects for Russian IT firms such as his are quite good.

His optimism is not due to much-hyped but largely mythical government assistance to small business. Rather, he insists, things are looking up mainly because of a bad news cocktail that includes Western sanctions, a 30 percent devaluation of the ruble, the growth of anti-American sentiment, and burgeoning suspicion toward all foreign digital goods and services in the wake of the Edward Snowden revelations. That has made Russia’s IT sector surprisingly fertile ground. 

“Every coin has two sides, and it’s true that this crisis has tightened the market, there’s less money in people’s pockets, and the competition has become really fierce,” says Mr. Sherstobitov, sitting in his central Moscow office.
About a dozen young employees are spread around the casual workplace, hunched over computers or seemingly staring out the windows.

“On the other hand, the market for IT services is really opening up, and people only want Russian goods and expertise – even if the quality isn’t quite as good as the Western ones everybody had gotten used to. There are a lot of new niches appearing, and I aim to move in to some of them.”

It’s not an unusual story. The share of small business and self-employment in the Russian economy is astoundingly low – about 20 percent, compared to up to 70 percent in developed Western economies – but experts say there is a new wave of 30-something entrepreneurs coming up.

“They are people who are not encumbered by the Soviet experience, and they have no illusions,” says Nikolai Solabuto, an analyst with FINAM, a Moscow-based investment firm.

“They’re not looking for fast profits. They know they have to work hard, count their kopeks, and brave a lot of risks. We see a lot of them going into business now, and they are surviving.”

Sherstobitov fits that bill. He says he pondered long and hard before giving up his secure job of many years and taking the plunge.

“The biggest obstacles for me were internal ones; I had to overcome my self-doubts and prepare myself to accept all the uncertainties,” he says.

“But it’s a chance to own and manage something that’s mine. That’s already an achievement my parents couldn’t dream of. So, whatever else you want to say, that’s really a qualitative change in this country.”

The limits of Kremlin aid

Barely a day goes by without some top Russian leader declaring that the government must promote small entrepreneurship, slash red tape, provide tax holidays, and encourage “import substitution” to defeat Western sanctions. But most small business people seem hard pressed to name any state program that has actually assisted them.

“There are some programs run by the Moscow government, and even the Central Bank, to help small and medium businesses connect with financing,” says Maria Barbakadze, director of Leaders’ Lab, an employment agency for professionals.

“But it seems that very few businesses know about these programs, or make any use of them.”

The complicated process of registering a new business has become easier in recent years, experts say. By July 1, it will be possible to do the whole thing online, says Alexei Darkov, deputy director of Rulex, a consulting firm that provides legal and logistical advice to small businesses.

“Bureaucracy is a machine that changes slowly, but there is a gradual tendency to streamline these procedures,” he says.

“Now much of the information can be found online, and increasingly you can get things done online.

The number of small business startups is definitely on the rise, particularly in the IT sphere.”

One thing everyone mentions are the big state-sponsored high technology “incubators,” which include the Kremlin-funded international technopark Skolkovo and the Moscow government’s huge Technopolis complex, where tax privileges and streamlined bureaucratic procedures are among the benefits extended to nurture high-tech startups.

Those advantages may be particularly attractive for foreign firms that find it hard to navigate Russia’s business jungle, where the hazards can still include exorbitant rents and capricious landlords, corrupt officials, byzantine paper work, endless state inspections, and the occasional visit from gangsters.

Sherstobitov, whose business would qualify, says he has been mulling the option of moving to one of those protected zones.

“I know they do provide some services, and make things easier in general. But so far we’re doing fine where we are,” with premises in a spacious, modern office complex near Moscow’s Victory Park, he says. “I just don’t feel any specific urge to move at the moment.”

 

‘Fresh energy’

Though the economic crisis and the new emphasis on made-in-Russia solutions may be goosing the domestic IT sector just now, some experts say the basic engine of growth is the global information revolution of recent decades, which is belatedly beginning to penetrate deeply into Russia’s economy.

“Over the past couple of years, traditional economic sectors, like construction, banking, and energy have really begun to engage with the Internet,” says Sergei Ponomarenko, CEO of Ingenious Systems, a small business consulting firm that bills itself as a “startup factory.”

“Our business doubled last year alone, and a lot of it is about businesses adopting Internet-based strategies,” he adds.

By next year, Sherstobitov says he wants to start producing his own line of security software that would be designed to protect his clients from targeted attacks. Though he isn’t thinking of going up against state-sponsored hackers, such as those who – according to Mr. Snowden – have attacked Russia’s leading security firm Kaspersky, there are plenty of other cyber-dangers facing Russian businessmen, and nowadays they want Russian specialists to provide the solutions, he says.

“There are a lot of gaps to be filled, we’re still behind the rest of the world,” he says. “But a lot of fresh energy is out there; people are developing new technologies and totally new products. It’ll take some time to work its way into reality, but come back in two or three years and Russia’s IT landscape is going to look completely different.”



via Vincent Varisano, Oops! Western Sanctions Have Russian IT Firms Thriving

Vincent Varisano Russia Oligarch's Divorce Could Be the Most Expensive Ever

Vincent Varisano,

This article originally appeared in The Sunday Times


AS THE wife of Russia’s richest oligarch, Natalia Potanina was long inured to a life of fabulous luxury. She commanded a private army of servants and bodyguards, enjoyed weekends on the family’s two mega-yachts and travelled by private jet. In the good old days the couple could easily spend £6m on the family’s summer holiday.

But since Vladimir Potanin, whose wealth has been put at between £9bn and £10bn by Forbes magazine, filed for divorce in 2013 Potanina’s life has taken a dramatic turn for the worse. She still lives in the family villa in Moscow, with its decor of gilded antique furniture and precious tapestries resembling a tsarist mansion. But she says it was recently sold by her ex-husband.

Potanina, who was married to her husband for 30 years, has had to cut back on staff and expenses and says she now gets by only on what’s left of the living allowance Potanin used to give her before the divorce. When I ask in polite small talk as she carefully vets our photographer’s portrait of her whether she still likes to holiday in Italy, she shoots me a baffled look and cries: “With what money? I can’t afford to anymore. I have nothing!”

Petite, soft-spoken but feisty, Potanina is now on a personal quest to change her financial fortunes. She is taking to court her ex-husband, one of Russia’s most powerful and well-connected tycoons, in an attempt to force him to pay her what Russian law states she is entitled to: 50% of all his assets.

If successful, Potanina stands to receive the single largest divorce settlement in history, up to £5bn — at least in theory.

“The law speaks clearly,” says Potanina, 53, immaculately groomed and elegantly dressed in black, as she sips orange juice in an upmarket Moscow restaurant, accompanied by a lawyer and a PR consultant — a close friend of many years who is helping her field dozens of media requests.

“I’m entitled to half of the family’s fortune — that’s what the law states. I’m only asking that the law be respected. It’s far too easy to think of what he built as his and to forget the role a wife and family plays. He had nothing when we married. Everything he achieved he did while he was married to me. I supported him through thick and thin. His fortune and success is also thanks to all the stability, love and family life I gave him.”

Potanina says she wants to set a precedent. On paper, Russian divorce law provides ample protection for women. In practice, however, it favours men with money and political connections whose influence and power can sway a court’s decision. In a country where the judicial system is not independent, courts typically rule against the ex-wives of oligarchs.

In 2003 Yelena Novitskaya, the ex-wife of the steel tycoon Alexei Mordashov, whose estate is now estimated by Forbes at more than £8bn, lost her court case against him after a relatively modest initial divorce settlement.

Novitskaya was not only denied any further share of Mordashov’s fortune, she was also ordered by the court to pay £2.5m court costs.

Natalia Potanina was married to Russia’s wealthiest oligarch, Vladimir Potanin, for 30 years     
Natalia Potanina was married to Russia’s wealthiest oligarch, Vladimir Potanin, for 30 years 

Olga Slutsker, a prominent Russian businesswomen, spent years locked in an acrimonious court battle after her ex-husband, a powerful senator, forbade her from seeing their children.

“In Russia there’s a clear discrepancy between what the law states and how it’s implemented when there’s a rich and powerful person involved,” says Potanina. “Sometimes courts rule in favour of men in such cases. All I’m after is fairness. I didn’t want this conflict but I was left with no choice.”

On Wednesday a Moscow court will hold a preliminary hearing in the high-profile “battle of the Potaninskis” when a judge will consider Potanina’s claim to half of her ex-husband’s shares in Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest producer of nickel and palladium. The market value of the listed company — in which Potanin owns a 30% stake — is more than £17bn.

Most of the oligarch’s other assets are thought to be tied up in a complex web of offshore companies and trusts, making it all but impossible for his ex-wife to prove what he owns. “Norilsk, however, is a clear case, it’s a public company, it would be rather extraordinary if a Russian court suddenly ruled that Vladimir does not own a large chunk of it.”

In an apparent attempt to win the government’s support and assuage fears that one of Russia’s most important companies could be rocked by the divorce battle, Potanina has vowed to place any shares awarded to her by the court under the control of the state.

Vladimir and Natalia married when they were still at university shortly before perestroika. “We lived in a small flat and had nothing,” recalls Potanina. “There were times when I’d wash my daughter in cold water. The very first money Vladimir invested came from our family budget.”

Over the next decade Potanin, the son of a senior foreign trade official, became one of the nation’s first oligarchs — the hungry Soviet men who first set out in the treacherous world of post-communist business and built multi-billion empires.

Potanin, 54, who at one point was deputy prime minister, was among the Russian billionaires with the closest Kremlin ties. The oligarch helped finance the Sochi Winter Olympics and enjoys good relations with President Vladimir Putin.

“He’s an extremely driven man, he’ll pursue his aim with manic determination and he likes a good fight,” says Potanina. “Life changed very quickly for us. First we hired a nanny, then came the cars, the drivers and bodyguards, the homes, the yachts, the private planes. From the very first kopek to the last billion, it was all built when Vladimir and I were married.”

For Potanina the fairy tale ended abruptly in January 2013 when her husband told her he wanted a divorce. Months later she learnt from the press that Potanin had fathered a love child with a younger woman he employed and whom he has since married.

“I was utterly devastated, my whole world collapsed,” says Potanina. “I never expected it. I loved him and thought I’d spend the rest of my life with him. One gets used to luxury, of course, but for me it was never about money it was always about family.”

Potanina claims that when he announced he was filing for divorce her husband asked her to sign a statement saying she would relinquish all her rights to his assets. She refused. She also says he told her that “no one would listen to her” if she turned to the courts.

A Moscow court ruled Potanina should receive a quarter of her ex-husband’s pay — £100,000 — in child support for their teenage son Vasily. The couple’s two other children, Anastasia and Ivan — both jet-ski champions — are 31 and 26 respectively.

It has been reported that Potanin claims his marriage to Potanina ended in effect in 2007 when his assets were valued at a fraction of what they are now. The oligarch’s lawyers have said that last year he offered his ex-wife a settlement of a lump sum payment of £32m, a portfolio of properties in Moscow, London and New York and a monthly allowance of £163,000. “The current offer is more than enough,” a lawyer for the oligarch said earlier this month.

Potanina vehemently denies any offer was made, and claims she receives “absolutely nothing” from her ex-husband. Ivan, their elder son, said his father had also broken off all contact. His sister works in the oligarch’s business empire. “He’s behaving appallingly,” says Potanina. “I just can’t explain why. Maybe it has something to do with a midlife crisis he’s living through or money and power going to his head.”

Before his divorce, Potanin made headlines by joining the Giving Pledge, a charity initiative set up by Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, and vowed to give the majority of his fortune to charity — a first for a Russian oligarch. “I also see it as a way to protect my children from the burden of extreme wealth, which may deprive them of any motivation to achieve anything in life on their own,” he said two years ago.

“Time will tell if he sticks to his promises,” says Potanina. “He’s entitled to do whatever he wants with his share. As far as mine is concerned, that’s up to me. This is not his fortune. It’s ours. I’m a reasonable person and I’m open to dialogue and compromise. I hope Vladimir is too. All I’m asking is to be treated fairly.”

Asked what she would do if she succeeded in becoming the world’s wealthiest divorcée, Potanina, pauses and smiles nervously. “In Russia we have a saying: ‘Don’t skin a bear before it’s been felled.’”

 



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